Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.017235 0.019549 0.022065 0.025007 0.028352 0.032039 0.036417
2025-04-27 0.013740 0.016947 0.020742 0.025570 0.031559 0.038755 0.048079
2025-05-04 0.011944 0.015593 0.020165 0.026329 0.034441 0.044784 0.059019
2025-05-11 0.010317 0.014105 0.019078 0.026106 0.035815 0.048808 0.067604
2025-05-18 0.009161 0.013035 0.018330 0.026125 0.037359 0.053040 0.076733
2025-05-25 0.008115 0.011963 0.017415 0.025738 0.038193 0.056248 0.084612
2025-06-01 0.007468 0.011372 0.017089 0.026115 0.040100 0.061092 0.095281
2025-06-08 0.006777 0.010632 0.016451 0.025925 0.041079 0.064570 0.104125
2025-06-15 0.006403 0.010332 0.016434 0.026665 0.043534 0.070497 0.117362
2025-06-22 0.005724 0.009477 0.015460 0.025765 0.043235 0.071953 0.123350
2025-06-29 0.005244 0.008898 0.014871 0.025423 0.043798 0.074826 0.131937
2025-07-06 0.004726 0.008206 0.014028 0.024567 0.043382 0.075970 0.137561
2025-07-13 0.004542 0.008079 0.014143 0.025397 0.046026 0.082718 0.154019
2025-07-20 0.004336 0.007894 0.014140 0.026021 0.048359 0.089132 0.170541
2025-07-27 0.004170 0.007764 0.014219 0.026790 0.051016 0.096357 0.189292
2025-08-03 0.003879 0.007375 0.013790 0.026563 0.051755 0.100026 0.201447
2025-08-10 0.003648 0.007078 0.013506 0.026583 0.052962 0.104681 0.216002
2025-08-17 0.003387 0.006701 0.013035 0.026188 0.053301 0.107638 0.227333
2025-08-24 0.003240 0.006535 0.012958 0.026573 0.055246 0.113982 0.246395
2025-08-31 0.003040 0.006247 0.012615 0.026378 0.055965 0.117853 0.260487
2025-09-07 0.002955 0.006185 0.012723 0.027132 0.058754 0.126312 0.285528
2025-09-14 0.002712 0.005772 0.012074 0.026216 0.057841 0.126721 0.292408
2025-09-21 0.002543 0.005503 0.011703 0.025868 0.058146 0.129813 0.305755